The problem. Ad platforms grade their own homework. Studies find 20–60% of the sales they take credit for would have happened anyway — someone searching your brand name was already coming to buy. You're paying for demand you already had, and the dashboard can't tell you which part.
The experiment. Change one thing in a few test cities — pause a channel, or boost it — and touch nothing else. Your remaining cities tell us what the test cities would have done if you'd changed nothing: that's the dashed ghost line you'll see everywhere here.
The answer. The gap between what happened and the ghost is what your ads actually cause. Counterfact reports it with honest error bars and a one-word call: SCALE · HOLD · ITERATE · CUT.
e.g. pause $10k/mo of brand search in 8 cities for 6 weeks. Revenue there drops 1% vs the ghost → those ads weren't causing sales. That's $120k/yr back.
A two-minute benchmark check of how much of your ad spend may be earning false credit or reaching bots. Free, no account required.
Run the free waste check →Ready to test for real? Create an account to design experiments.
— — — The dashed line is the product. Every number here is a range or interval by design: Counterfact never reports certainty it doesn't have. Benchmarks reflect published industry studies; your real numbers come from your own experiments.